Vladimir Putin’s and the entire Russian government’s approval ratings plunged in recent months due to their extremely unpopular pension reform plan, but when it comes to oil production, Russia remains a model of predictability. We cannot think of any other non-OPEC country where production growth has been as consistent over the past decade. In June, we previewed Russia’s production response following the OPEC+Russia decision to unwind their production cuts, and today we are providing an update on Russia’s oil production outlook. On a short-term basis, it is fair to say that Russia’s post-cuts production uplift will be slightly faster than we had expected. Longer-term, however, the picture is much the same as it has been: steady growth of 1% per year. What’s intriguing, though, is how much harder Russia’s oil industry has to work in order to achieve that 1% growth. While we do not expect Russian supply to peak anytime soon, capital spending trends increasingly raise troubling questions about the country’s oilfield productivity.